Knee of the Curve

One of the issues I think we need to look at as educators is the accelerating pace of change. I’m reading a book right now that makes a compelling case for the amazing changes that are going to happen in the lifetimes of our students (and, more specifically, within the next 30 or so years).

The books spends some time talking about exponential growth. For those of you who may have forgotten some of your algebra, a simple example of exponential growth is doubling. Start with 1 of something, then double it and you have 2. Double it again and you have 4. And so on. The famous exponential growth example in technology is “Moore’s Law”, where an industry executive predicted that the “speed” of computer chips would double every 18-24 months. The thing with exponential growth is that at the beginning, the growth doesn’t look all that spectacular. While it’s true that going from 1 to 2 is doubling, the absolute increase is only 1. And from 2 to 4 is doubling, the absolute increase is only 2. In fact, at the beginning exponential growth is barely distinguishable from linear growth. The author makes the case that humans are conditioned to view things as growing linearly, because we naturally take a fairly short-term view of things. But the thing about an exponential curve (when you graph it), is that suddenly the curve seems to shoot up – almost vertically. The author argues that we are currently in the “knee of the curve” and that even though we give lip service to the idea that things are changing rapidly, we don’t really have a good intuitive sense of how quickly and how much things are about to change. So, for example, if you have 1 million of something and now double it, you have 2 million – or an absolute change of 1 million.

If we are in the “knee of the curve,” then we are about to see explosive changes in just about everything because of the capabilities of technology. My daughter is in Kindergarten. By the time she graduates from high school, the typical household computer will probably be at least 100 – and maybe as much as 1,000 - times faster than current household computers (and most likely one-tenth of the cost). The Internet – in terms of mass use of it and also broadband access – is still in its infancy. It’s already had a massive impact on all areas of our lives – and we’re still just figuring out how best to use it. Imagine what it’s going to look like in 12 years. At the current pace, the fastest computers will be able to simulate the human brain in 2013. He predicts that between 2025 and 2030 we will be able to upload ourselves into computers. This sounds like science fiction (and there's much more in the book - especially the nano technology stuff), but he has shown a remarkable ability to predict change in the past.

Even if you don’t buy all the predictions, I think there’s no question that the pace of change is itself increasing (that would be the second derivative for all you math folks), and that should have a powerful impact on what and how we are teaching our students. Do you believe that school as we have typically defined it is going to prepare our students adequately to be successful in the 21st century? As David Warlick says:

Never before in the history of the world has a generation been better prepared for the industrial age.

Or, from Tim Wilson:

• Old teaching methods don’t work with today’s kids. I raised a few eyebrows when I suggested that the act of a teacher consciously deciding not to use advanced technology with his or her students might be considered educational malpractice.
• The value of factual knowledge is plummeting. I showed how quickly basic facts can be accessed with Google and looked ahead to a day within ten years when all students will carry an Internet-connected computing device with them 24×7.
• We are in a relevance race. If we fail to utilize new technologies, we risk alienating our students. It won’t be many years before students can homeschool themselves and earn a high school diploma without setting foot inside a traditional school. If schools as we know them are to survive and prosper, we’re going to have to adjust to a world where we’re not the only game in town.

I tried to come up with some choice quotes to leave with the group. Here are two that seemed to go over well:

If your work can be automated, it will be.

And the question of the day:

What are you doing right now to prepare your students to collaborate seamlessly across cultures in jobs that probably don’t yet exist?

So, what are you doing right now to prepare your students?